Go Team Ivan!

When It Comes to War, Russia is Not Exactly a Winning Dynasty

Former President Donald Trump recently stated that we drop support for Ukraine because all Russia does is fight and win wars. He was making the case to end aid to Ukraine due to Russia having such a long, grand history of being an adept military power. Here’s a quote to a crowd of supporters in Savanah, GA: “What happens if they win? That’s what they do, is fight wars. As somebody told me the other day, they beat Hitler, they beat Napoleon. That’s what they do. They fight. And it’s not pleasant.”

I need to unpack part of that statement “somebody told me.” Somebody told you? Somebody just happened to mention the Soviet Union defeated Hitler in World War II? That the Russian Empire defeated Napoleon? That’s news to you? I suppose papa Fred Trump paid somebody to take all your history exams.

I will admit 45 does raise a fair point — what if Russia wins? We have to face the prospect that all this equipment and treasure will have been completely sunk in the Ukrainian cause if Russia wins the conflict. However, we should not throw in the towel of our support of Ukraine due to a fear that Russia is invincible. The historical record proves otherwise: Russia has collected some astounding losses under its military belt.

We could go back to the Mongol invasion of the 13th century, but let’s just take it from the Napoleonic Wars, one of the big wins somebody happened to tell Donny about the other day. Before the fateful invasion, Russia fought the war of the Fourth Coalition as part of an anti-French alliance. Napoleon kept knocking off Russia’s allies one by one until they were the only ones left. After the Battle of Friedland in June of 1807 Napoleon negotiated a treaty with Tsar Alexander that was actually rather favorable, nonetheless, a defeat for Russia. 0–1.

Then the tsar soured at his damaged economy due to Napoleon’s trade restrictions with Great Britain and he withdrew from the alliance forced upon Russia by France. Buonaparte responded with a full invasion of the Empire of Russia in 1812 with approximately 600,000 soldiers from all over Europe. Russia put up a valiant fight just west of Moscow at the Battle of Borodino. The battle was lost but the Russians withdrew from the field in good order and continued to retreat and trade space for time, giving up Moscow in the process. Two elements Russia had on its side were an endless Eurasian land space and the Russian winter, which exhausted and froze most of those 600,000 poor souls to death. Russia kicked Napoleon out and, along with the help of European allies who rose up against his rule, defeated him two years later.

1–1.

After Napoleon’s defeat the tsars were able to rack up some wins against weakening opponents. Russia fought three wars in the 19th century against the declining Ottoman Empire, plus another against the Persian Empire (if you want to count that). In 1828–29, they defeated the Turks with the help of allies and the Greeks fighting for independence (the British were mainly aiding the Greeks with naval support during the 1820’s). In the 1853–56 Crimean War, they fought the Turks again, but this time, allies in the previous war — the British and French — were now against Russia. They had given in to an over-inflated sense of Russian military prowess, much as Donald Trump is experiencing, so they aimed to contain them. The fighting was constrained to the war’s eponymous Crimean Peninsula. Russia couldn’t defeat the British and French, who shipped their armies in from great distances straight to Russia’s borders. Russia lost its major port, Sevastopol, in a long siege and sued for peace. The war gave us Florence Nightingale; a brilliant poem, The Charge of the Light Brigade; and a revelation of the ineptitude of the perceived Russian military behemoth. (The next stage of the current struggle may very well end in the Crimea).

The next major war was again against the increasingly decrepit Ottoman Empire in 1877–78 which was, more or less, a land grab. The final treaty was dictated not by the Russian Tsar but by Bismarck in Berlin.

So if you count a victory over the Persians in the 1820’s, Russia was 4–1 for the 19th century. Not bad, but the 20th century and the upstart Japanese Empire was right around the corner. The Russians lost in abysmal fashion to the Japanese in the war of 1904–05. When they tried to redeem themselves in WWI against, of all empires, the German Second Reich, they lost in an equally terrible way with the treaty of Brest Litovsk signed in 1918. The Bolsheviks signed away Poland, the Baltics, Belarus, and Ukraine. However, one should examine the Brusilov Offensive of 1916. For all the offensives of that grinding struggle, that measured success not in miles but in yards, this one attack named for the Russian commander who planned and launched it was the most successful of the war. The Germans and allies alike would borrow Brusilov’s tactics and implement them in 1918 to bring the war to a close. Nevertheless, Russia lost battle after battle to the Germans, who were also contending with the British and French on the Western Front.

4–3.

Then another far more murderous tyrant came knocking on the Slavic door in 1941 when Hitler and the Nazis of the Third Reich invaded. Russia, now the Soviet Union, referred to the old playbook. They fell back in massive retreat, trading space for time, and wait for “general winter” to freeze German soldiers’ bones and panzer tanks’ engines. Another element played a part in Russian victory, the mud — Rasputitsa — as it’s warmly called helped to bog down tanks and vehicles. The Nazi lightning war machine was drastically slowed to barely a crawl. The Soviets won one of history’s greatest battles, Stalingrad, and arguably one of the greatest tank battles, Kursk, then on to the Battle of Berlin and the unconditional surrender of Germany. So yes, chalk up this colossal contest as a major win but keep in mind, Russia was helped in those conflicts by the elements, geography, and a steady tonnage of Allied supplies. The USSR received massive aid from the West. Soviet Supreme Commander Georgi Zhukov himself admitted if they didn’t get the American Studebaker trucks they wouldn’t have been able to advance along the Eastern front against the Nazis as they did. Russia’s military performed well but they were not invincible. Ask any Red Army soldier who bore the brunt of loss after loss against the Werhmacht in 1941. None of this is to take away the extreme bravery of the common Soviet soldier (hundreds of thousands of whom were Ukrainian) and the brilliance of their commanders at winning WW II.

5–3.

Make no mistake, this was a tremendous victory for the USSR in one of the greatest wars fought in all human history. However, these wars were in their own special category, especially the Second World War. The Russian had to either win or die. Russia wins wars when they are existential and it’s on their own territory. The remaining wartime record needs to be addressed.

After WW II, the next major contest was the invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980’s. They weren’t necessarily defeated but it wasn’t a resounding victory either. The Soviets withdrew militarily from the country and soon collapsed as a government altogether, so the Russian military machine would have to take a loss, just as the Americans had in Vietnam. To close out the century they fought a war in Chechnya, the first of which they technically lost due to withdrawing from Grozny. The second, administered by Russia’s new president Putin, I suppose can be called a victory. They effectively leveled every building in typical brutal style and planted their flag of victory on a decimated landscape. The world would learn how a Putin-controlled military would fight its wars.

6–5. Just over a .500% winning percentage.

So sure, Mr. Trump, Russia has won some wars yes, but nothing close to an impeccable military record. The beginning of those campaigns against the French in 1812 and the Nazis in 1941 were marked with horrendous defeats and long retreats. The Russian military clearly has had some glorious moments, but nothing indicating Ukraine should in any way give up hope and stop fighting for their country.